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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4690

Title: Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries
Authors: Afonso, António
Jalles, João Tovar
Keywords: Debt
Primary balance
Fiscal regimes
Stationarity
Breaks
Causality
Panel cointegration
FMOLS
Issue Date: 2012
Publisher: ISEG - Departamento de Economia
Citation: Afonso, António e João Tovar Jalles. 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE working papers 29-2012/DE/UECE
Series/Report no.: DE working papers;nº 29-2012/DE/UECE
Abstract: We assess the sustainability of public finances in OECD countries, over the period 1970-2010, using unit root and cointegration analysis, both country and panel based, controlling for endogenous breaks. Results notably show: lack of cointegration – absence of sustainability – between government revenues and expenditures for most countries (except for Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, and UK); improvements of the primary balance after past worsening in debt ratios for Australia, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands and the UK; Granger causality from government debt to the primary balance for 12 countries (suggesting the existence of Ricardian regimes). Overall, fiscal policy has been less sustainable for several countries, and panel data results corroborate the time-series findings.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4690
ISSN: ISSN Nº 0874-4548
Publisher version: https://aquila.iseg.utl.pt/aquila/getFile.do?method=getFile&fileId=299069&contentContextPath_PATH=/departamentos/ec/lateral/menu-working-papers/nova-serie/2012&_request_checksum_=a98ff5d1a73d66b7f2fb27c82cc55d2de39e1dbe
Appears in Collections:UECE - Documentos de Trabalho / UECE - Working Papers
DE - Documentos de trabalho / Working Papers

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