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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4262

Title: The underground economy and the fiscal stance : Is there a natural level of the underground economy and how does it affect fiscal consolidation?
Authors: Jardim, José Manuel Norberto
Advisor: Santos, Jorge
Keywords: underground economy
tax evasion
fiscal policy
stabilization
deficit
debt
(applied) general equilibrium models
two sector growth models
simulation modelling
Economia subterrânea
evasão de impostos
politica orçamental
consolidação orçamental
defice
divida
modelos de equilíbrio geral aplicados
Parallelle economie
belastingontduiking
duurzame overheidsfinancien
sanering overheidsfinancien
begrotingssaldo
overheidsschuld
toegepaste algemene evenwichtsmodellen
economische groeimodellen met twee sectoren
simulaties
modelos de crescimento economico de dois sectores
simulação
Issue Date: Mar-2012
Publisher: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Citation: Jardim, José Manuel Norberto . 2012. "The underground economy and the fiscal stance : Is there a natural level of the underground economy and how does it affect fiscal consolidation? ". Tese de Doutoramento. Universidade Técnica de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Abstract: The inevitability of taxes and regulations, that cause agents to go underground, forces the authorities to tolerate some underground economic activity and grants the underground economy natural features. The natural level of the underground economy is defined as the level of underground economic activity in the decentralized equilibrium, provided that the actual structural characteristics of the economy and social preferences are accounted for by imbedding them in the Walrasian system of general equilibrium equations. Its existence is proven using two variants of neoclassical general equilibrium models. The underground economy is found to influence the successfulness of fiscal consolidation programmes, depending on the position of the economy relative to critical fiscal thresholds associated with the natural level of the underground economy. Tax increases yield higher tax proceeds up to the threshold, and lower tax proceeds, passed the threshold, due to a stronger expansion of the natural level of the underground economy. Tax proceeds reach their maximum at the threshold. Tax based programmes are found ineffective in high tax developed economies, operating passed the threshold. In contrast, its successfulness in the developing world, where most economies operate below the threshold with low taxes, is not influenced by the underground economy.
Perante a inevitabilidade de impostos e regulamentação, que estão na origem da economia subterrânea, as autoridades vêem-se forçadas a tolerar actividades económicas subterrâneas. Isto confere um carácter natural à economia subterrânea. A existência de uma taxa natural de economia subterrânea é provado utilizando dois modelos neoclássicos de equilíbrio gereal. A taxa natural de economia subterrânea define-se como o nível de actividade económica subterrânea no equilíbrio descentralizado, dadas as propriedades estruturais da economia e das preferências sociais, que se incluem no sistema Walrasiano de equações de equilíbrio geral. Prova-se que a economia subterrânea influencia o resultado de programas de consolidação orçamental. Isto depende da localização da economia face a valores fiscais críticos associados à taxa natural de economia subterrânea. A seguir a um aumento de impostos, as receitas começam por crescer, atingindo o máximo no ponto crítico, para a seguir cair, devido a uma expansão da taxa natural de economia subterrânea. Programas assentes no aumento de impostos não são bem sucedidos em países desenvolvidos com cargas fiscais elevadas, que operam além do ponto crítico. Já os países em desenvolvimento, cuja maioria opera abaixo do ponto crítico com cargas fiscais baixas, a economia subterrânea não parece influenciar a eficácia dos programas.
Vanwege de onoverkomelijkheid van belastingen en regulering, die parallelle economische activiteiten induceren, zien de autoriteiten zieh genoodzaakt deze activiteiten te tolereren. Dit verschaft een natuurlijk karakter aan de parallelle economie. De natuurlijke parallelle economie is het niveau aan parallelle economische activiteiten in het gedecentraliseerde marktevenwicht, gegeven dat de huidige structurele eigenschappen van de economie en van de sociale voorkeuren erbij worden betrokken door inbedding ervan in de algemene evenwichtsvergelijkingen in het systeem van Walras. Zijn bestaan wordt bewezen met behulp van twee neo-klassieke algemene evenwichtsmodellen. Bewezen wordt dat de effectiviteit van saneringsprogramma's die stoelen op belastingverhogingen beinvloed wordt door de parallelle economie, afhankelijk van de positie van de economie in relatie tot kritieke belastingdrempels, die samenhangen met de naturlijke parallelle economie. Dit is het belastingniveau tot waar belastingverhogingen leiden tot extra belastingopbrengsten en hun maximum bereiken, waarna die afnemen. Saneringsprogramma's die stoelen op belastingverhogingen zijn niet succesvol in ontwikkelde landen met een hoge belastingdruk, die opereren voorbij het kritieke belastingniveau. Daarentegen schijnt de parallelle economie geen rol te spelen in ontwikkelingslanden, waar de belastingdruk - over het algemeen - lager is en de economieen onder het kritieke belastingniveau opereren.
Description: Doutoramento em Economia
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4262
Appears in Collections:DE - Teses de Doutoramento / Ph.D. Thesis
BISEG - Teses de Doutoramento / Ph.D. Thesis

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