A longer-run perspective on fiscal stability

Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/3586

Título:	A longer-run perspective on fiscal stability
Autor:	Afonso, António Jalles, João Tovar
Palavras-chave:	Fiscal sustainability Government debt Unit roots Breaks Structural time series models
Data:	2011
Editora:	ISEG. Departamento de Economia
Citação:	Afonso, António, João Tovar Jalles. 2011. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal stability". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE working papers nº17-2011/DE/UECE.
Relatório da Série N.º:	DE working papers;nº 17/2011/DE/UECE
Resumo:	This paper investigates the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 countries by taking a longer-run secular perspective over the period 1880-2009. Via a systematic analysis of the stationarity properties of the first-differenced level of government debt, and disentangling the components of the debt series using Structural Time Series Models, we are able to conclude that the solvency condition would be satisfied in mostly all cases since non-stationarity can be rejected, and, therefore, longer-run fiscal sustainability cannot be rejected (Japan and Spain can be exceptions). The same would be true for the panel sample analysis.
URI:	http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/3586
ISSN:	0874-4548
Aparece nas colecções:	UECE - Documentos de Trabalho / UECE - Working Papers DE - Documentos de trabalho / Working Papers

Ficheiros deste registo:

Ficheiro	Descrição	Tamanho	Formato
wp17-11.pdf		787,35 kB	Adobe PDF	Ver/Abrir