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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/3586

Title: A longer-run perspective on fiscal stability
Authors: Afonso, António
Jalles, João Tovar
Keywords: Fiscal sustainability
Government debt
Unit roots
Breaks
Structural time series models
Issue Date: 2011
Publisher: ISEG. Departamento de Economia
Citation: Afonso, António, João Tovar Jalles. 2011. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal stability". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE working papers nº17-2011/DE/UECE.
Series/Report no.: DE working papers;nº 17/2011/DE/UECE
Abstract: This paper investigates the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 countries by taking a longer-run secular perspective over the period 1880-2009. Via a systematic analysis of the stationarity properties of the first-differenced level of government debt, and disentangling the components of the debt series using Structural Time Series Models, we are able to conclude that the solvency condition would be satisfied in mostly all cases since non-stationarity can be rejected, and, therefore, longer-run fiscal sustainability cannot be rejected (Japan and Spain can be exceptions). The same would be true for the panel sample analysis.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/3586
ISSN: 0874-4548
Appears in Collections:UECE - Documentos de Trabalho / UECE - Working Papers
DE - Documentos de trabalho / Working Papers

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