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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2621

Title: Trade potential in an enlarged European Union: a recent approach
Authors: Fontoura, Maria Paula
Martínez-Galán, Enrique
Proença, Isabel
Keywords: European Union
Gravity Model
Commodity Composition of Trade
Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator
Trade Potential
Issue Date: 2006
Publisher: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Citation: Fontoura, Maria Paula, Enrique Martínez-Galán e Isabel Proença. 2006. "Trade potential in an enlarged European Union: a recent approach". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE Working papers nº 8-2006/DE/CISEP
Series/Report no.: DE Working papers;nº 8-2006/DE/CISEP
Abstract: This paper aims to evaluate the trade potential of manufactured products between countries belonging to the EU in the threshold of its Eastern enlargement. For this purpose we use a Gravity model which is estimated with a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Method. We extend the specification of the gravity model in order to capture bilateral trade specificities between groups of countries of the enlarged EU, allowing to test the statistical significance of these inter-groups' trade potential. In addition, it includes the Commodity Composition of Trade. The estimated coefficients are used to project exports of each country. We conclude that in 2002 the CEEC as a group had exhausted their export potentialities to the enlarged EU, whereas the same does not apply to its imports from the EU members.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2621
ISSN: 0874-4548
Publisher version: https://aquila1.iseg.utl.pt/aquila/getFile.do?method=getFile&fileId=26444
Appears in Collections:CISEP - Documentos de Trabalho / CISEP - Working Papers
DE - Documentos de trabalho / Working Papers

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