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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2551

Title: Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: a New Approach
Authors: Afonso, António
Agnello, Luca
Furceri, Davide
Sousa, Ricardo M.
Keywords: Fiscal Deterioration
Fiscal Sustainability
Issue Date: 2009
Publisher: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Citation: Afonso, António ...[et al.] 2009. "Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: a New Approach". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE Working papers nº 19-2009/DE/UECE
Series/Report no.: DE Working papers;nº 19-2009/DE/UECE
Abstract: We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue -responsiveness and persistence - we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal behaviour. Drawing on quarterly data we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method. In this way we track fiscal developments, i.e. possible fiscal deteriorations and/or improvements for eight European Union countries plus the US. Results suggest that positions have not significantly changed for Finland, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom and the US, whilst they have improved for Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2551
ISSN: 0874-4548
Publisher version: http://aquila2.iseg.utl.pt/aquila/getFile.do?method=getFile&fileId=94481
Appears in Collections:UECE - Documentos de Trabalho / UECE - Working Papers
DE - Documentos de trabalho / Working Papers

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