Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/9973
Título: Modelling and forecasting the volatility of the portuguese stock index PSI-20
Autor: Caiado, Jorge
Palavras-chave: EGARCH
forecasting
GARCH
GARCH-M
leverage effect
PSI-20 index
TARCH
volatility
Data: 2004
Editora: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Citação: Caiado, Jorge (2004). "Modelling and forecasting the volatility of the portuguese stock index PSI-20". Estudos de Gestão, IX(1):3-22
Resumo: The volatility clustering often seen in financial data has increased the interest of researchers in applying good models to measure and forecast stock returns. This paper aims to model the volatility for daily and weekly returns of the Portuguese Stock Index PSI-20. By using simple GARCH, GARCH-M, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and Threshold ARCH (TARCH) models, we find support that there are significant asymmetric shocks to volatility in the daily stock returns, but not in the weekly stock returns. We also find that some weekly returns time series properties are substantially different from properties of daily returns, and the persistence in conditional volatility is different for some of the sub-periods referred. Finally, we compare the forecasting performance of the various volatility models in the sample periods before and after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/9973
Aparece nas colecções:2004, Volume IX, nº 1

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