Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/9252
Título: Euro area time varying fiscal sustainability
Autor: Afonso, António
Jalles, João Tovar
Palavras-chave: fiscal sustainability
causality
impulse response functions
time-varying coefficients
fiscal rules
logistic model
Data: 2015
Editora: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Citação: Afonso, António e João Tovar Jalles (2015). "Euro area time varying fiscal sustainability". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE Working papers nº 13/2015/DE/UECE
Relatório da Série N.º: DE Working papers;nº 13/2015/DE/UECE
Resumo: We assess the time varying features of fiscal sustainability in the euro area via revisiting the empirical relationship between the primary budget surplus and the debt-to-GDP ratio. Focusing on a sample of 11 Euro-area countries between 1999Q1 and 2013Q4 and by means of time series analyses, we find that: i) fiscal policy seems to have been sustainable in Belgium, France, Germany and Netherlands and a Ricardian (monetary dominant) regime might have been present; ii) debt exhibited a negative response following an innovation in the budget surplus in half of the sample; iii) the time-varying coefficient model shows that the 2008-2009 global economic and financial crisis exerted a sizeable negative impact on fiscal sustainability; iv) expenditure-based fiscal rules are strong determinants of fiscal sustainability. All in all, we found some evidence against the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/9252
ISSN: 2183-1815
Versão do Editor: https://aquila4.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/getFile.do?method=getFile&fileId=613262&_request_checksum_=175f3ab25884b1cc76b1916a5d09b54d6e652e38
Aparece nas colecções:UECE - Documentos de Trabalho / UECE - Working Papers
DE - Documentos de trabalho / Working Papers

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