Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/8142
Título: The Trade-off Unemployment Rate/External Deficit : Assessing the Economic Adjustment Program of the Troika (European Commission, ECB and IMF) for Portugal using an Input-Output Approach
Autor: Amaral, João Ferreira do
Lopes, João Carlos
Palavras-chave: Unemployment
External deficit
Input-output analysis
Economic adjustment program
Troika
Portugal
Data: 2015
Editora: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Citação: Amaral, João Ferreira do, João Carlos Lopes (2015). "The Trade-off Unemployment Rate/External Deficit : Assessing the Economic Adjustment Program of the Troika (European Commission, ECB and IMF) for Portugal using an Input-Output Approach". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE Working papers nº 4/2015/DE/UECE
Relatório da Série N.º: DE Working papers;nº 4/2015/DE/UECE
Resumo: This article presents an evaluation of the economic adjustment program negotiated between the Portuguese government and the Troika (European Commission, ECB and IMF) in May 2011, with an assessment different from the usual exercises. Instead of an ex-post comparison between the actual results and the proposed targets, an ex-ante assessment of the forecast errors is made. It is shown that these errors could be avoided if the productive (input-output) structure of the economy and the unemployment/external deficit trade-off were taken into account. The main conclusion of this assessment, a large under-estimation of the unemployment rate of about 4 percentage points, illustrates the technical incompetence of this adjustment program and the huge economic and social costs it unnecessarily caused. The methodology used can easily be replicated in assessing other similar programs, such those applied in Greece, Ireland and Cyprus.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/8142
ISSN: 2183-1815
Versão do Editor: https://aquila4.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/getFile.do?method=getFile&fileId=550935&_request_checksum_=8f2bf1cded9349f4fa84cc8b8a9049d9cd448b82
Aparece nas colecções:UECE - Documentos de Trabalho / UECE - Working Papers
DE - Documentos de trabalho / Working Papers

Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro Descrição TamanhoFormato 
wp042015DEUECE.pdf637,68 kBAdobe PDFVer/Abrir


FacebookTwitterDeliciousLinkedInDiggGoogle BookmarksMySpace
Formato BibTex MendeleyEndnote Degois 

Todos os registos no repositório estão protegidos por leis de copyright, com todos os direitos reservados.