Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2650
Título: The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output - the cases of France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain
Autor: Afonso, António
Claeys, Peter
Palavras-chave: fiscal indicator
structural balance
output gap
SGP
EMU
SVAR
short and long-term restrictions
Data: 2006
Editora: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Citação: Afonso, António e Peter Claeys. 2006. "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output - the cases of France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE Working papers nº 26-2006/DE/UECE
Relatório da Série N.º: DE Working papers;nº 26-2006/DE/UECE
Resumo: The main focus of this paper is the relation between the cyclical components of total revenues and expenditures and the budget balance in France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain. We try to uncover past trends behind the development of public finances that contribute to explaining the current stance of fiscal policy. The disaggregate analysis of fiscal policy in an SVAR that mixes long and short-term constraints allows us to look into the transmission channels of fiscal policy and to derive a model-based indicator of structural balance. The main conclusions are that fiscal slippages are mainly due to reversals in tax policies, which are unmatched by expenditure adjustments. As a consequence, deficits rise when economic conditions worsen but cause a 'ratcheting up' in the size of government in economic booms. The Stability and Growth Pact has not eradicated these procyclical policies. Bad policies in good times also contribute to aggregate macroeconomic instability.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2650
ISSN: 0874-4548
Versão do Editor: https://aquila1.iseg.utl.pt/aquila/getFile.do?method=getFile&fileId=26462
Aparece nas colecções:DE - Documentos de trabalho / Working Papers
UECE - Documentos de Trabalho / UECE - Working Papers

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