Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2592
Título: The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment
Autor: Pina, Álvaro
Venes, Nuno
Palavras-chave: fiscal forecasting
Stability and Growth Pact
Excessive Deficit Procedure
fiscal rules
Data: 2007
Editora: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Citação: Pina, Álvaro e Nuno Venes. 2007. "The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE Working papers nº 23-2007/DE/UECE
Relatório da Série N.º: DE Working papers;nº 23-2007/DE/UECE
Resumo: This paper analyses the track record of fiscal forecasts reported by 15 European countries in the context of the Excessive Deficit Procedure. For the budget balance, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and interest payments, we study the statistical properties of forecast errors and their politico-institutional determinants. While errors in interest and GFCF expenditure present few systematic patterns, budget balance errors are responsive to fiscal institutions and to opportunistic motivations, especially from 1999 onwards: upcoming elections induce over-optimism, whereas commitment or mixed forms of fiscal governance and numerical expenditure rules (but not deficit and debt rules) are associated to greater prudence.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2592
ISSN: 0874-4548
Versão do Editor: https://aquila1.iseg.utl.pt/aquila/getFile.do?method=getFile&fileId=26494
Aparece nas colecções:DE - Documentos de trabalho / Working Papers
UECE - Documentos de Trabalho / UECE - Working Papers

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