Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2464
Título: Modelação da probabilidade de ocorrência de incêndio em povoamentos florestais de Portugal Continental
Autor: Ricardo, Alexandra da Costa
Orientador: Borges, José Guilherme Calvão
Palavras-chave: forest fire
fire risk
forest management
forest stands
logistic regression
incêndio florestal
povoamento florestal
gestão florestal
risco de incêndio
regressão logística
Data de Defesa: 2010
Resumo: The fire is the most important agent of land use change in Portugal, being a major threat to the forestry industry. This context suggests the need for the active management and their incorporation into the management of fire in forest management. It was modeled the probability of fire occurrence, incorporating several factors that determine the fire risk factors that are under control of the forest manager. The study was based on the 3rd and 5th Review of the National Forest Inventory and the perimeters of burnt areas for the periods 1998-2003 and 2006-2007, respectively. It was necessary to simulate the stand growth of the burned plots when the year of the inventory was not the same as the year of fire occurrence. The probability of fire occurrence was modeled using binary logistic regression; we selected a first model that incorporates biometric variables, shrub biomass, the stand composition and altitude and a second model including the same variables without biometric variables. It is possible to predict the probability of fire in forest stands at the national level with a reasonable quality, to quantify the effects of management on the probability of fire occurrence, allowing the development of forest strategies that take into account the fire risk.
Descrição: Mestrado em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2464
Aparece nas colecções:BISA - Dissertações de Mestrado / Master Thesis



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