Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2135
Título: The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output
Autor: Afonso, António
Claeys, Peter
Palavras-chave: fiscal indicator
structural balance
SGP
SVAR
short and long-term restrictions
Data: Jul-2007
Editora: European Central Bank
Citação: Afonso, António e Peter Claeys. 2007. "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output". European Central Bank working paper series nº 775-2007
Relatório da Série N.º: European Central Bank working paper series;nº 775-2007
Resumo: The main focus of this paper is the relation between the cyclical components of total revenues and expenditures and the budget balance in France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain. We try to uncover past trends behind the development of public finances that contribute to explaining the current stance of fiscal policy. The disaggregate analysis of fiscal policy in an SVAR that mixes long and short-term constraints allows us to look into the transmission channels of fiscal policy and to derive a model-based indicator of structural balance. The main conclusions are that fiscal slippages are mainly due to reversals in tax policies, which are unmatched by expenditure adjustments. As a consequence, deficits rise when economic conditions worsen but cause a 'ratcheting up' in the size of government in economic booms. The Stability and Growth Pact has not eradicated these procyclical policies. Bad policies in good times also contribute to aggregate macroeconomic instability.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2135
ISSN: 1725-2806
Versão do Editor: http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp775.pdf
Aparece nas colecções:DE - Documentos de trabalho / Working Papers

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